It was a secret for a long time – except maybe to a few “undercover agents” in Sonoma, but the HGTV Dream Home for 2009 has now been revealed and it’s right here in Armstrong Estates.  Premier Builder, Steve Ledson, has done it again.  Great floor plan, exquisite detailing and authentic craftsmanship…this house truly is a Dream.  Already generating lots of excitement on the HGTV website, the bloggers are weighing in on the location, the floor plan and the fabulous front porch.  As if it needed more press, our little town of Sonoma will get some pretty awesome exposure once the real media push starts.  Those of us who know Sonoma and Armstrong Estates, know that the location – just a few blocks east of the Historic Sonoma Town Square and the neighborhood – flawlessly controlled by developer Steve Ledson to maintain the authenticity of a small town feel – will make the HGTV Dream Home one of the most popular ever.  Great Job, Steve.  Thanks for bringing this to our community.If you want to get a closer look at the floor plan, visit the HGTV website (www.hgtv.com) and also check out the comments by HGTV house planner Jack Thomasson.   

OK so I have been avoiding the market for the past 4 months rather than try to compete with all the negative news being broadcast by the media, but the fact of the matter is that the trends in Napa, Sonoma, and Marin Counties are positive. Inventory numbers are dropping and the number of sales have increased for each month so far this year to where March is at par with July 06 before the financial marketplace went haywire.

The lower end of the market is by far the most active as folks seem to sense that the bottom is near and they better buy soon.  My personal asst just closed on a 400k home in Napa after making offers on 14 different homes before she was the successful bidder. Multiple offers in the lower price ranges for homes that were 30% higher 3 years ago are not uncommon now.

As you move up the price range however the loss of values is less and the market is slower. They are not competing with foreclosures as they are rare in the upper price ranges in our markets.

Buyer’s are however bargaining tougher and expecting more for their money. Before you buy or sell, get as thorough an analysis of the local market as you can to see what is really happening.  The press tends to generalize and you cannot paint the entire market, County, City or even neighborhood with the same brush.

Any Realtor can provide you with comprehensive information including trends for the area. If they can’t, find another Realtor who can. The information is widely available to us and I would worry about the competence of someone if they couldn’t provide basic data.

So famous last words, you won’t know we hit bottom till it’s too late so you wait and run the risk of losing out on the bargain and costing yourself money or you jump in early and risk losing  equity before prices start moving back up.  Either way unless you are very lucky you won’t time it right so if you plan to buy in our market areas, I think we are at or very near the bottom. We all need someplace to live don’t we?

So the Feds have worked out a deal with the lenders to try and help those who probably shouldn’t have bought a house anyway. I sincerely hope that they are successful for those people’s sake.

A local business writer called me a few weeks ago and wanted to know why there weren’t very many foreclosures in Napa or Sonoma when so much is being reported about how bad the foreclosure numbers are. Well that is where the real estate is really local part comes in.  Not every market in the country or even in the State of California where we are in the top three states for foreclosure numbers is equally affected across the board. Most of the impact is in Southern and in the Central Valley of California and some limited markets in Northern California.

So we get calls from buyers looking for a “steal” and we politely point out that while the market has definitely slowed and values in the lower end of the market have fallen, it is by no means a plummetting market like the media would have you believe.

We have the stats to prove it, analyzed from the mls numbers comparing listings on the market, price trends, sales trends, sales prices and sales price trends. We can slice and dice it by zip code, price range, bedrooms, baths, date range, and on and on to demonstrate what is going on in the market.  We can’t make this stuff up.  Most brokerages are employing the software that allows us to do this these days so any Realtor should be able to run this information for a buyer or seller as they contemplate the opportunity for them in today’s real estate market.

So you can look at this market as the best opportunity for buying that we have seen in the last 12 years at least or not, but get the facts in the market you are considering. If you rely on the media, do you really believe everything you read in the paper or see in the news?

I recently witnessed an interview with a dozen home-buyers who bought in the last 6 months and to a person they perceive this market as one of the best opportunities to buy in.

I don’t know if this quote is accurate or even attributed properly, but the way it was told to me is “When everyone is excited, I get worried, when everyone is worried, i get excited about opportunities” Warren Buffet. If it is inaccurate it certainly sounds like something he would probably say.

Oh and there is plenty of mortgage money out there at great rates as long as you qualify the old fashioned way, with a job, enough income, the proper debt ratio and good credit, just like it used to be.

A lot is being written about where the real estate market is going in the next few years and i would submit to you that none of these folks really have much more than an educated guess based on whatever tea leaves they derive their data from, so listen to your gut. It’s probably the best barometer you have.

Happy Holidays and here’s to a great 2008!!!

That is the sense of the Real Estate sales community in our part of the world anyway. The market seems to be moving in fits and starts as buyer’s cautiously make their offers.

Seller’s in the lower price ranges ( in our markets that is generally under a million dollars) who typically need or really want to sell are now comprehending the market better and pricing accordingly.  Those properties are now selling more frequently and more quickly.

There are actually homes for sale in the mid to high 400,000 price ranges, which we have not seen since 2003 or so.

However much to the chagrin of the higher end buyer, those prices aren’t falling so much as they are stable, not appreciating or depreciating. This is probably due to the fact that there just aren’t that many of them in our marketplace.

We read about foreclosure activity and while there is some, it is mostly confined to the southern end of Napa County and specific pockets of Sonoma County where the bulk of new home subdivisions with so called affordable housing have been built.

Our agents are reporting inquiry calls from investors looking for good values that they can hold for a few years anticipating the market’s recovery already.  What do they know or see that the average home buyer doesn’t?

Lately the real estate market has been like watching the talking heads on CNBC blather on about where they think the stock market or individual sectors of the market might be going. At some point in time they are all right, just not usually when they are expressing their opinions. I have found that to be the case with the real estate commentators who for years repeated annually that the market had to cool and this was the year. Eventually they got it right and now they are saying the prices will recover and then move up again, maybe 2009, 2010 or ? What do they know now that they didn’t know then. Sounds to me like they are hedging their collective bets.  I have always been sorry I didn’t buy and waited.

So what is the average consumer supposed to do? Well if you need a house to live in, buy one.  People buy new cars all the time and they immediately lose 20-25% of their value the minute you drive them off the lot.  If you don’t need a house to live in but think maybe the bottom is approaching, and real estate has always been a great investment over the long haul, buy something.  Trying to time the bottom may cost you more than maybe giving up a little value in the beginning to get the property you want before you have to compete with others for it.

So what are you waiting for really?

Right now many sellers and buyers are uncertain about what is happening in the market. There is a lot of fear and uncertainty.Even in the Realtor community that uncertainty exists as probably half of those in the business today have never experienced a downturn in the market. On the other hand many of us have been through something like this before. For me in 1980-1983 and 1990-1995, both downturns were different and for different reasons.In the 80’s financing was impossible to get and interest rates on 30 year loans reached as much as 19%.  Seller financing was prevalent and all kinds of creative things were going on and values remained firm.In the 90’s the Los Angeles area lost thousands of jobs as the aerospace industry went through a fundamental shift, coupled with the S&L crisis where many more homes than are predicted for this market went into foreclosure and were dumped on the market. These two events caused market values in Southern California to drop as much as 30% while they held firm in Northern California. Within 5 years Southern California had recovered their values and doubled over the next 10 years.

Now what does this all have to do with the Realtors role in today’s market.  Well here is what I think you should know about your Realtor.

1. They possess the local knowledge. We deal with property transactions every single day and though national statistics may have shock value, local statistics paint a more realistic picture. And even embedded with local stats are micro markets and markets even vary from one price range to the next. In Napa and Sonoma Counties the values most generally affected are for properties valued at under $750,000.00.  That is not to say there has not been some impact over that price, but the impact is less severe the higher up the value ladder you go. It is a function of affordability, higher priced properties are acquired by those who can more easily afford them and lower priced properties by those who frequently are stretching to get into them. 

3. We also work very hard to tell the truth. That is, if a seller is motivated and pays attention to what is happening in the market (through comps, through the education and experienced perceptions of his/her Realtor), homes that are in the right locations, in above average condition and priced well are still selling quickly.  Homeowners are still making tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars on their investment.

4. Many sellers who purchased their home more than 3 or 4 years ago are likely to still do very well at the end of a transaction. Those who purchased more recently will need to think very carefully about whether now is the right time to move. Again, a Realtor will help provide the tools to make that decision. We work with the facts, helping a client analyze the cost of selling vs. the cost of staying put. We really are here to help people negotiate best choices in the market — not just push them willy nilly to throw a sign in the yard.

5. If you are contemplating buying, consider the history of the real estate you are considering. When did it sell last? What is the value history of the property, the neighborhood, the community? Your Realtor can provide that information. How long are you intending to hold the property and why are you buying it? After every market drop there has been a dramatic recovery.  It can’t be guaranteed, but what did your granparents or parents pay for property all those years ago. Try and maintain your perspective. If you think things will continue to decline in value and you wait until you think you know where the bottom is, chances are you’ll be too late.

I cannot tell you how many times we have seen buyers circling a property like sharks waiting to feed and all of sudden the price is adjusted and there are multiple offers on the table and everyone loses but one.  If you have a value in mind, make the offer before that price reduction.  You’re a lot more likely to get the property and be the only one negotiating with the seller for it.

Consider this, it is in this kind of market that you can begin the creation of wealth for the next decade. Why do you think that the high end of the market is holding up so much better than the lower end?  Someone is still buying real estate out there.

Does that mean that we’re not seeing people who are squeezed? Who got into loans they couldn’t afford? Who are going to make some tough decisions in the next months? Of course not. But we certainly have reason to reassure the majority of the population that (one) the sky is not falling and (two) Realtors are professionally skilled at negotiating and making the most of the asset of a home.

This is not rhetoric. We constantly strive to educate ourselves about the market, by geography, by price-point, by financing, by client, by lifestyle, by school area, by developer, by amenities, by transportation… the list of variables is immense. In the past few months, we have had some of the best-known leaders in local real estate speak to us about the credit crunch, financing, home values, economic predictions, appraisals, negotiating, technology, and the list goes on. We hold weekly meetings to discuss issues facing our clients, and we do tremendous research to put it in perspective for them.

 As you would trust your doctor or your lawyer, as your Realtor you  have an educated advocate at your side. We want you,  our clients to have a full view of what we do for and with you so that you feel you’re making the best choice possible about your investment in your property.

I have been licensed as a Realtor for over 35 years and experienced at least 3 similar but different upheavals in the real estate market in my career so i feel like i can comment on this one.

First of all, as usual everything is greatly exaggerated and blown out of proportion by the press. Unfortunately that can lead to a self fulfilling prophesy for some folks who are spooked by what they read and hear being reported.

In my opinion the financial markets brought all of this on themselves and don’t have the courage to stick it through, absorb their short term losses and stick to their programs.  They have panicked despite the enormous returns they have garnered in the last few years as they feasted at the trough of securitized mortgages.

That being said we are what I would term what used to be normal in terms of how long it takes for a home to sell, what kind of proof of ability to repay a loan is being required of borrowers and the importance of the proverbial location, location, location.

Property values in our region have dropped in some areas back to 2004 levels, giving up the appreciation from 04 to 05 and no appreciation in 06, but others haven’t lost value at all and may have appreciated some. Real Estate is regional and can even vary neighborhood to neighborhood and block to block in the same community. So anytime someone generalizes about the real estate market, take it with a grain of salt and if you are seriously thinking of buying or selling, do your homework. Get professional help and make sure the facts and figures you are using are accurate. Their are a few popular web sites out there that purport to be the source for information and when compared to real verifiable information can be misleading and very inaccurate, especially in rural or non conforming areas.

That’s my soap box for this week. Cheers

One of the challenges and sometimes unexpected issues when buying property in areas of Napa and Sonoma Counties is the nature of “country/rural  properties”.

Most of us live in cities with all the utility services provided and taken for granted. That is not usually the case with country/rural property. The only utility commonly available from a public agency is electricity. That leaves gas, usually in the form of a large propane tank, water, usually in the form of an on-site well and storage, and septic, usually in the form of septic and leach fields and maybe even an old cesspool.

Each of these systems has their own maintenance issues to be aware of, gas includes the monitoring of the supply, delivery and appliances with the proper fittings to burn propane, water includes history, quality, i.e. mineral and possible contaminents content, filtering systems, quantity being pumped, storage, pressure and well pump age, history and maintenance, and finally septic including size, age, type and condition and previous use and maintenance history of the system, i.e. what kind of stuff has been going into the system.

All of this in addition to the traditional concerns about the dwellings and structures on the property. In addition if one is considering planting vines, there are a whole other set of concerns to be aware of. There are even “right to farm”  disclosure documents in each county which attempt to make the potential buyer aware of what living in a county where farming, which grape growing is, occurs has its own special considerations to be aware of.

Fortunately there are excellent consultants employed to assess all of these issues and advise any potential buyers of any issues to be concerned with. Any Realtor skilled in representing these kinds of properties knows what to advise both buyers and sellers to be aware of and to refer them to the appropriate experts for advise.

In our experience for instance my wife and I moved from So. Calif. and purchased our first country property on Sonoma Mountain in Sonoma County on 11 acres with an old farmhouse, along with all of the issues i refer to above. In addition we had two electric meters, one connected to the house and the other for agricultural use and the well. We missed transferring the meter at the well and woke up one morning to find ourselves with no water. We also had to replace a failed septic system, the design and installation for which took over a year to get through the county and cost thousands more than we anticipated due to the soil type. We were Realtors with over 25 years experience in the industry and you would think we would have known better than to represent ourselves in purchasing property in an area we were new to and a property type we really knew very little about.

By the way the first time you are awakened by the roosters crowing in the morning or the anti freeze systems going off in the vineyards, you really know you are in the country.

The moral of this story is to be sure you are represented by someone who knows the pitfalls to be aware of when purchasing this kind of property and don’t be surprised by the unexpected. It is just the nature of owning country/rural property.

Welcome to MIKE SILVAS’s Blog! This blog will provide you with valuable information, tips, and general insight into the real estate market in California’s Wine Country, including the Counties of Napa, Sonoma, Marin, Lake and Solano.

I’ll answer your questions about the market, property values, country property, luxury estate property, vineyards, wineries and more.

Morgan Lane has offices in and provides real estate brokerage services for the area north of San francisco including the above Counties. We specialize in luxury estate properties, wine country estates, vineyards, wineries and land.

The market for luxury proerty is robust and the Wine Country especially has become an attractive investment for the wealthy. Owning a piece of the Wine Country is alluring and romantic to many. The laid back lifestyle and slower pace of life is attracting folks from all walks of life who have the means to live wherever their lifestyle takes them, whether it be a primary residence or one of a multitude of residences.

Visit Morganlane.com to see properties for sale in our marketplace and links to attractions like wineries and lodging, information about our Communites and a place to inquire of me at info@morganlane.com.